This Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) Estimator is meant to be used as a guide for understanding the direction of vehicle TCO only. While the creators have made every effort to ensure accurate estimates, the results yielded from use of this tool are not guaranteed to be exact. Actual results may vary with regard to the total cost of owning and operating various gasoline, diesel, compressed natural gas, and zero- and near-zero emission vehicles. The input data which this calculator uses to estimate total cost of ownership is based upon a variety of sources. In some instances, assumptions were made regarding input data due to a lack of available data as some vehicle technology included in this tool is nascent. Version 1.0 of this tool does not include any capital cost information associated with alternative fueling stations or electric vehicle charging station development, nor does it include other fees commonly associated with near- and zero-emission vehicle deployment such as demand charges.

We welcome feedback on this tool. If you have feedback for improving the tool or making the data it uses to calculate TCO results more accurate, please contact the creators at tco@calstart.org.

Version 1.0 of this tool does not include any cost information associated with alternative fueling station or electric vehicle charging station installation, nor does it include other fees commonly associated with near- and zero-emission vehicle fueling such as demand charges. This information was intentionally omitted from the tool and, while it is an important and necessary consideration that a fleet must make when considering procurement of alternative fuel vehicles, the creators of the tool made the choice to focus the scope of this tool only on vehicle costs and keep infrastructure capital costs separate.

Pre-set MSRP costs are based on various sources, including personal communication with vehicle OEMs, the California Air Resources Board, CommercialTruckTrader.com, California Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project (HVIP), Drive Clean Chicago, New York Truck Voucher Incentive Program, and the University of California. Where MSRP values were not readily available, projections were made based off of other similar vehicle types, sizes, and fuel types. Average values for multiple MSRP estimates per vehicle type-fuel type combination are used.

Within the TCO Estimator, all users have the option to either rely on pre-set purchase prices or override those pre-set purchase prices to customize and improve the precision of TCO estimates. These overrides are also available for pre-set fuel economy estimates, pre-set maintenance costs, and pre-set fuel prices.

Pre-set fuel economy estimates are based on various sources, including personal communication with vehicle OEMs and fleets, Argonne National Laboratory, the California Air Resources Board, Department of Energy, and crowd sourced estimates as logged on Fuelly.com. Where fuel economy estimates were not readily available, projections were made based off of other similar vehicle types, sizes, and fuel types. Average values for multiple fuel economy estimates per vehicle type-fuel type combination are used.

As with pre-set purchase prices, pre-set maintenance costs, and pre-set fuel prices, all users have the option to either rely on pre-set fuel economy estimates or override those pre-sets to customize and improve the precision of TCO estimates.

The maintenance costs per mile were modeled using the HDM-III model. The more updated HDM-4 was considered, however the new updates only give the user room to account for varying road conditions, and the TCO calculator is assuming unknown road conditions. The model breaks maintenance costs down into two sections, Cost of Parts and Cost of Labor. Cost of Parts is defined as cost of parts multiplied times “rate of parts decay”. Rate of decay is calculated using parameters from the model that are based on a given vehicle’s specifications. Cost of Labor is broken down into two parts: price of labor, and labor hours per mile. The price of labor is assumes 40 hours worked per week, and the number of labor hours is calculated based on vehicle parameters and the previously calculated decay of parts.

This model was developed in Brazil in the 1980s, so various economic and human factors needed to be updated when adapting the model for the current day conditions in the USA. Examples of this include higher cost of vehicles, higher quantity of skilled mechanics, better road conditions, etc. To take these factors into account, the model was calibrated by diving the labor hours by 12.75. This number was obtained by making the model fit the cost results of 10,001-14,001 pound truck, results which had been obtained from an OEM that the creators consulted.

The maintenance costs for alternative fuel engines were derived using ratios of efficiency between each alternative fuel vehicle type and a similar gasoline-fueled vehicle. After the previously described method of calculation was utilized to find the gasoline maintenance costs, the corresponding costs for different types of engines were estimated by using these efficiency ratios. It is important to note that the model yielded results that did not fit the trend for several of the shuttle bus and school bus options. This is likely due to the lower MSRP cost of shuttle and school buses, comparatively. In order to fit the model, these estimates were projected based on the trend resulting from the model in other fuel-type and vehicle type combinations. More long-term research on maintenance costs for alternative fuel vehicles is required in order to improve the preciseness of average maintenance cost estimates.

See: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/129721468326428758/Description-of-the-HDM-III-model

As with pre-set purchase prices, pre-set fuel economy estimates, and pre-set fuel prices, all users have the option to either rely on pre-set fuel maintenance costs or override those pre-sets to customize and improve the precision of TCO estimates.

Average state level fuel price projections are used for every fuel type. The tool creators sourced fuel price data for all fuel types except Hydrogen from the Energy Information Administration. Hydrogen fuel price data was sourced from the Argonne National Laboratory’s VISION Model, which provided a national average price for hydrogen. For the projections of prices, 2018 was used as a baseline year and projections run through year 2050.

As with pre-set purchase prices, pre-set fuel economy estimates, and pre-set maintenance costs, all users have the option to either rely on pre-set fuel prices or override those pre-sets to customize and improve the precision of TCO estimates.

To incorporate the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard into TCO estimations, the creators relied on CARB’s LCFS Credit Price Calculator (https://ww3.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/dashboard/creditpricecalculator.xlsx). This calculator contains the assumptions made by CARB for calculating potential LCFS revenue. For the HVIP TCO Estimator, an average credit price of $134.10 is used for every year for which it currently has fuel price projections (2018-2050). $134.10 is the average weekly credit price from the date of first reporting on April 21, 2016 through May 23, 2019 (according to https://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/credit/weeklycredit_activitylog_052819.xlsx).

Since LCFS credit prices fluctuate, every user has the ability to view CARB’s weekly LCFS credit price web-page and override the pre-set LCFS credit price as needed to improve the precision of TCO estimates.